RESEARCH

Working Papers & Current Research Projects

"When the Message Meets the Moment: State-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Surprises on the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations" (current; poster, paper to come)

*Presented at the World Bank in Washington D.C. at the PREDOC.org Summer Research Conference (August 2025)

*Upcoming presentation at the Columbia University Undergraduate Research Symposium (October 2025)

This paper examines the state-dependent transmission of monetary policy surprises to the term structure of household inflation expectations, where state dependence arises both from the type of surprise and from whether inflation is supply- or demand-driven. Using horizon-specific inflation expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Shapiro’s (2024) decomposition of inflation into supply- and demand-driven components, I estimate responses to monetary surprises in a state-dependent local projection framework. Results indicate that pure monetary policy shocks predominantly influence short- and medium-term expectations, whereas central bank information shocks produce broader and more persistent effects across the entire horizon. The magnitude of these responses is amplified under supply-driven inflation regimes and attenuated under demand-driven regimes. These findings reveal that the credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy are contingent not only on the nature of the monetary innovation but also on the prevailing sources of inflation.

"Belief Distortions in Household Expectations: Implications for Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy" (current)

This research investigates the co-movement between household inflation and unemployment expectations, a stylized fact that contradicts conventional macroeconomic theory and may reflect systematic belief distortions. Drawing on data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC) and the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), I test whether households interpret inflation as a signal of future labor market weakness, and whether this misperception varies across regimes or in response to monetary and trade shocks. Building on Kamdar (2019), I propose a set of extensions that introduce panel structure, state dependence, exogenous shocks, and belief heterogeneity into the analysis. I also consider the implications for perceived bargaining power, reservation wages, and the design of optimal policy under distorted expectations.

"On Extracting Exogenous ECB Monetary Policy Shocks from ESTR Futures" (upcoming)

I construct an instrument for European macroeconomic research that uses 3-month ESTR futures data around ECB monetary policy announcements to identify surprises and shocks.  

"Contractionary Monetary Policy Shocks and Financial Stress Under Varying Inflationary Regimes: A Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis" (Independent Study / Sophomore Thesis - Spring/Summer 2024, Rollins College)

Independent Study / Sophomore Thesis - Spring/Summer 2024, Rollins College. Abstract/Introduction; for full paper please contact. 

"A Dynamic Adaptive Nowcasting System for Inflation (DANS)" (current; Columbia University)

Writings

"Disentangling ‘Greedflation’: An Examination of Corporate Pricing Behavior and Inflationary Dynamics in the Post-Pandemic Era (2021-2023)." (Fall 2023, Rollins College - Department of English)

Beyond ‘Greedflation’: On Inflation in the Post-Pandemic Era (Fall 2024, Columbia University - Department of English)

Motivation

My interest in economics was first sparked during the tumultuous period of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the ensuing Great Recession. At that critical juncture and formative period of my life, economic issues were at the forefront of collective consciousness, allowing me to observe firsthand the profound impact policy decisions could have on the economic well-being of a wide array of individuals, especially those in my community and myself. Witnessing how economic instability and crisis could scar a generation, shape global politics and influence the culture cemented my passion for understanding how policy may be leveraged to mitigate risk and prevent future crises. This initial fascination has since evolved into a focused research interest in macroeconomics, financial markets, and monetary policy. 

My academic journey is driven by a desire to explore how nuanced, data-driven policy measures can safeguard against systemic financial risks and enhance economic stability. The economic crisis from the recent COVID-19 pandemic has further motivated my research pursuits to capture the nonlinear dynamics of the economy through innovative analytical techniques and economic models. Most of the macroeconomic research I focus on includes macroeconometrics, behavioral macroeconomics, DSGE modeling, forecasting and nowcasting. 

I am inspired by the quote "Do all the good you can, by all the means you can, in all the ways you can, in all the places you can, at all the times you can, to all the people you can, as long as ever you can" and have aligned my research endeavors with the goal of making such a substantial impact. My research pursuits and professional ambitions reflect a personal commitment to impacting the most people I can through work that minimizes risk of crisis and promotes economic stability and prosperity to communities worldwide.